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Somalia could become a big thorn in America's side if U.S.
officials don't support moderate Islamic elements and prevent
an invasion of Ethiopia, former senior U.S. diplomats said
yesterday.
"You talk about mistrust, fear and tension nowadays, and
Somalia is even worse than Iraq," Herman Cohen, former
assistant secretary of state for African affairs, said at a
press briefing.
The Islamic Courts Union (ICU), the dominant Islamist movement
in the narrow nation in the Horn of Africa, controls more than
20 percent of Somalian territory and 40 percent of the
Somalian people.
Mr. Cohen said Somalis have enjoyed more security and
stability after the ICU's June takeover of the capital,
Mogadishu, than they had in the past 15 years.
"Word is getting out that life in Mogadishu since the ICU is
pretty good. They ended the reign of corrupt warlords who only
took money, kidnapped people and set up roadblocks," he said.
Somalian clan politics have prevented the emergence of a
strong centralized government for decades, but the appeal of
calm and a new united Somalian state could be "a potentially
successful formula" for the Islamists, he added.
The growing appeal of the ICU is being monitored by the State
Department, which has included the group's governing council
president on its terrorist list.
Robert Oakley, special U.S. envoy to Somalia from 1992 to
1994, pointed out that al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has
been to Somalia before and used it as an example of a negative
U.S. role.
"At the moment, there's no evidence that al Qaeda is setting
up a new base of operations in Somalia. But we can't just
forget about Somalia like we have before," he said.
Ethiopia, Somalia's longtime military rival, also is wary of
the ICU's gains.
David H. Shinn, U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia from 1996 to 1999,
said, "There are 4 million Somalis living in Ethiopia. If that
area were to become part of Somalia like many of these
[Islamist] leaders want, Ethiopia would lose a lot of its
territory, something like a quarter."
Mr. Cohen said the United States should discourage Ethiopia
from using force and creating a "self-fulfilling prophecy" --
the ICU rallying Islamist forces against invading "crusaders."
The United States should support moderate Islamic elements in
Somalia, or risk radicalization, Mr. Cohen said.
He
also urged the United States to change its focus from narrow
anti-terrorism concerns to a battle for "hearts and minds" in
a land still bitter over past U.S. support for the warlords.
"I
think now 10 of the 15 Islamic councils are moderate. But with
Saudi funding, the hard-liners could gain more ground. We need
to support the moderates now, while the situation is still
fluid," Mr. Cohen said.
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